Prediction of potential suitable areas for <i>Broussonetia papyrifera</i> in China using the MaxEnt model and CIMP6 data

Abstract Broussonetia papyrifera is an important native tree species in China with strong adaptability, wide distribution, and economic importance. Climate change considered as the main threat to ecological processes global biodiversity. Predicting potential geographical distribution of B. future climate scenarios will provide a scientific basis for restoration China. Principal component analysis (PCA) Pearson correlation were conducted select environmental variables. The changes suitable area predicted using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model CIMP6 dataset from 2041 2060. current highly areas mainly located Guangdong (5.60×10 4 km 2), Guangxi (4.39×10 Taiwan (2.54×10 Hainan (2.17×10 2) provinces. mean temperature coldest quarter (11.54-27.11℃), precipitation driest (51.48-818.40 mm), wettest (665.51-2302.60 mm) factors limiting papyrifera. multi-modal average total 111.42×10 2 349.11×10 SSP5-8.5 scenario, while those SSP1-2.6 scenario 87.50×10 328.29×10 2, respectively. gained expand western northern scenarios. multi-model averaging results showed that available planting was 212.66×10 229.32×10 scenarios, respectively, when within farmland range excluded.